The fact that Narendra Modi is an astute politician is in no doubt. The Gujarat Chief Minister has not only built a public persona, but such an engrossing one that there is an ongoing online and offline war of ideas and ideals; sometimes between best friends. But how real is Brand Modi? To decipher it, look no further than his much-touted Gujarat model.
DAIPAYAN HALDER// At the neighbourhood dhaba, the one next to NDTV Convergys office where Barkha Dutt did a Chai pe Charcha some weeks back, friends are turning foes and strangers are uniting under a common chant. NaMO, short for Narendra Damodardas Modi, a word that may soon be inducted into the Oxford dictionary of new words with two very different meanings: an invocation to a higher power as well as a cuss word.
Days are not far when in sanitized urban spaces, like in college canteens, restro-bars and newsrooms, riots will break out not among Hindus and Muslims, but among Modi fanboys on one hand and the secular soldiers on the other. While the latter will rattle off the 2002 horrors when a thousand plus Muslims were raped, maimed and killed under Modi’s watch, the former will argue no court of law has held the Gujarat chief minister guilty for the riots and we should forget the past anyway to forge a stronger future. The operative word here is strength. For his faithfuls, Modi has become synonymous with strength, though it means different things to different sections that have come out in his support.
For the lowest common denominator that is his traditional support base, the Ram bhakt, Hindu majoritarian, cow-worshipping, Manu endorsing, obscurantist, North Indian voter, Modi is the pillar of strength that would teach the Muslims a lesson or two like in Gujarat 2002 or Muzzfarnagar 2013. His much-flaunted 56 inch chest (44 inches according to his tailor) is a symbol of Hindu pride for these guys, who feel slighted by the politics of minority appeasement that parties like the Congress and Samajwadi Party practice at the expense of the majority community. Though it has to be said that in his public speeches this election season, Modi has steered clear of communal agenda, for this traditional voter base, he will deliver ‘revenge’ when he comes to power and bring in an era of hyper-nationalism. And there are always the Giriraj Singhs to send off Modi critics to Pakistan when that happens so that this remains a nation of faithful. Bharat Mata ki Jai and all that.
For the burgeoning middle class, Modi means new strength in the economy. More credit cards to swipe, bigger cars to ride and swankier homes to buy. Fed on a healthy dose of market reforms since the economy was opened up in 1991, this new group of Modi fans has no time or timeline space for Hindutva but is dismayed by the state of the economy under UPA-2. It has no love lost for what it thinks are populist measures like the MNREGA and are waiting for Modi to bring in more reforms and by waving some magic wand bring the economy back on track. It cares two hoots for the ‘Pink Revolution’ and would rather have the cows back on the plate, but has bought Modi’s Gujarat Model which his media managers have fed into our collective consciousness through mass media. For this group too, Modi has deftly played up his ‘strength’ by pitting it against Manmohan Singh’s weaknesses (the outgoing prime minister’s meek nature, ineffective communication skills and failure to revive the economy).
Last and perhaps most significantly, Modi’s ‘strength’ has attracted almost all top industry houses. From Ambani to Adani, Modi is seen as the powerful CEOtype who will do away with red tapism and NGO activism to attract Big Business. There is no doubting the fact that Modi has over the years made the right noises to attract industry.
When West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee queered the pitch for Ratan Tata, he took his Nano to Modi-land. Other industry captains have also found the going easier in the state. Sometime late last year, at a FICCI event, Modi charmed the predominantly female audience by saying his focus once he comes to Delhi would be to tap into their entrepreneurial skills and talents as well as give them special status in elected bodies. And so industry captains are outdoing each other in extending support to the Gujarat strongman.
It says something about us Indians that we look for strength in a leader and not conviction. Or moral character. But we will leave that analysis for the secular types who are seriously considering shifting to Bhutan once Modi becomes PM. What is remarkable is how a former tea seller from a ‘backward’ caste has come to signify strength for a vast majority of Indian voters, irrespective of caste, creed, region and eating pattern. It is another matter that the Supreme Court has finally recognised transgenders as an OBC group and they are also feeling rather strong this poll season. Maybe, they will root for Modi too!
RAM PUNIYANI// One of the propaganda hypes of current times has been the development of Gujarat under the leadership of Modi. When one looks at the available statistics and analyses the so called growth of the state what one sees is the fact that this state has performed dismally under Modi. After the series of ‘Vibrant Gujarat’ conclaves the claim was made of huge forthcoming investments. The “Global Investors Summit”, data show that the share of “projects implemented” and “under implementation” has continuously declined: from 73 per cent in 2003 to 13 per cent in 2011. Ministry of Commerce data also suggest that the State’s share in investment intentions as reflected in industrial entrepreneur’s memorandums, letters of intent and direct industrial licenses has steadily declined from about 20 per cent in 2005 to less than 10 in 2011. As per Reserve Bank of India figures, it ranks fifth in Foreign Direct Investment.
As far as agricultural growth is concerned it ranks eighth in agricultural growth. The plight of this sector is also reflected in the worsening condition of farmers and agricultural labor as per the data of Gujarat Department of Economics and Statistics. As such growth should be an inclusive term in which all parameters of needs of the state; its people; are taken care of. In Gujarat what has happened is an industrialisation which suited the needs of some industrialists. The state’s checks and balances have been missing. They were given lands at low cost, bank loans an easy terms and enterprises were set up without regard to the need for employment growth; neither did it conform to needs of ecological protection. State’s role to ensure that the growth is inclusive and environment is protected was done away. Paradoxically while the claims of a ‘strong’ leader are being made; as such what happened is a role reversal and the keys of industrial policies have been given in the hands of few entrepreneurs. The result is that the governance in Gujarat has been fashioned to meet the needs of the private investor, and public investment has been relegated to the back seat. This is what Gujarat model of development has come to mean. So logically it has adverse implication on sustainability and distributive justice.
As such what explains the partial investment boom in Gujarat is the cumulative result of tax concessions, investment subsidies, low-interest credit, cheap cost of land and a pro-business labor policy and not the much-touted good governance, Gujarat style! Economic Survey, Government of India, 2011, tells us that Gujarat has highest number of strikes and other forms of labour unrest in recent times. Despite that investors have continued to have their faith in the Modi Government as they by now are convinced that state stands on their side. The result is that employment growth in manufacturing and services turned negative in the last five years, and even prior to that was it concentrated mostly in the informal sector. As far as social indices are concerned Gujarat as a matter of fact has slipped down during last ten years. In the matter of Infant Mortality Rate it is 14th in rural and 10th in urban areas. Gujarat has one of the highest poverty levels of all the Indian states. Gujarat ranks 13th in the hunger index amongst the 17 large states of the country. Huge tracts of land have allocated to corporate have displaced lakhs of pastoralists, farmers, agricultural workers fishermen, Dalits and Adivasis. During Modi’s tenure, 16,000 workers, farmers and farm laborers had committed suicide due to economic distress by 2011, which remained under reported in the media.
The high level of malnutrition in Gujarat is a consequence of extremely low wage rates, malfunctioning of nutrition schemes, lack of clean water supplies, and lack of sanitation: the state ranks 10th in the use of toilets, with more than 65% of households defecating in the open, resulting in high levels of water borne and other diseases. Uncontrolled pollution has destroyed the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen, and subjected the local populations to skin diseases, asthma, TB and cancer etc. Modi governments’ ‘lack of financial discipline has resulted in huge indebtedness. The state's debt increased from `45,301 crore in 2002 to `1, 38,978 crore in 2013. Immediately after polarising the Gujarat through the carnage Modi shifted his rhetoric to the one of development and gave the keys of Gujarat’s resources’ in the hands of some corporate. His authoritarian style has been projected as being efficient and ‘strong’, this is at the cost of democratic norms in the society. Assisted by the section of corporate controlled media and the communal forces he has propagated about the development, which as we see is hardly there and whatever little is there is non-inclusive and divisive.